Friday, September 14, 2012

Mitt Romney and the Green State Strategy to Win

IT'S LOOKING A BIT SADDER for Mitt Romney with each passing day. No, no. He's still got his megabucks. His hair still looks great. The Mrs. seems nice. He has all those homes. And a car elevator would really be cool. But, hey, we all know money can't buy happiness, although short of happiness, as someone once said, it's Katie bar the door.
Lately, it's starting to look like money can't buy a chair in the Oval Office, either.
When last seen Mitt was making stupid comments about Egypt and Libya and being attacked for his stupid comments, even by members of his own party. Meanwhile, he's still rummaging around in the attics at his various homes, trying to find his old high school year book, and maybe his 2007 tax returns. Nice fellow, Mr. Romney. Maybe kind of an empty suit.
Still, America's bazillionaires love him and they're doing what they can to save a campaign that has all the spice and real substance of tapioca pudding. The Koch brothers, David and Charles, sons of Fred C. Koch, one of the founding lights of the John Birch Society are all in. (The Bircher motto goes like this: "Communism is Terrible; Everything We Don't like is a Communist Plot, Including, but not Limited to, Democrats, Labor Unions and Fluoridated Water.) So is Sheldon Adelson, owner of gambling casinos all over the world, the old codger whose company may soon be under investigation for money laundering.
Adelson, alone, has epressed a willingness to spend $100 million to defeat Barack Obama in 2012. Because we all know if Obama wins the Commies win and Adelson will have to cough up 3% more in taxes. In related news, the stock market hit 13,539.86 yesterday, on positive reports for U. S. home builders. That's right. More proof the Commies in the construction business are winning.
So: How's it going for Mr. Mitt Romney? Actually, according to RealClearPolitics, it's not going so good. Even the last Fox News opinion survey had President Obama up my 5 percentage points, 48% to 43%, which had to have Gretchen Carlson and all the blond Fox Talking Puppets spitting out their Wheaties when they reported the news. Worse yet, the blue-state tide seems to be rising faster than the GOP can shovel red-state cash to stop it. Gallup has Obama up 7, CNN/Opinion research 6. The other polls are closer, but all are currently showing blue. Well, no, not Rasmussen. They had the incumbent trailing by 1 point Wednesday, but Rasmussen was the one poll, in 2008, that consisitently understated Mr. Obama's chances of winning.
If you believed Rasmussen four years ago you kind of figured Sarah Palin was already picking out drapes for her White House office.
WE ALL KNOW IT'S NOT OVER until the Fat Bazillionaire sings--and we know money is still power. But Mitt is in trouble, sinking if possible under the weight of his own vacuousness. Obama has sizeable leads in 18 states and the District of Columbia, which would give him 237 electoral votes (270 needed to be elected). Romney lead in more states, 23, but with only 191 votes. He is likely, however, to sweep the coveted Dakotas. Yes, yes! Three electoral votes each!
That means nine swing states are almost certain to decide the election. Romney's best chance right now seems to be to turn those nine purple states green. Pour in the money. Or, possibly, supress the vote. How does it all look as of today?
Florida (29 electoral votes): It's close; but Obama is ahead by 0.6 percentage points, admittedly a margin as thin as a few hanging chads.
North Carolina (15): Betting men would say Mr. Romney's going to take the state, although the last poll did show a bit of blue.
Virginia (13) is balanced to go either way, although Obama leads in the Commonwealth, too, especially if you discount a poll taken by Gravis Marketing, which sounds like a telemarketing operation. But call this state red if you like Mitt.
Ohio (18): The Buckeye State is blue by 2.6 points.
Wisconsin (10): Blue, but not Paul Ryan's eyes blue; Obama by 1.4 points.
Iowa (6): Call it "too close to call." Blue by 0.2 points
New Hampshire (4): Obama up 4.
Colorado (9): Polling shows the president up 3.6.
Nevada (6): More blues for Romney, maybe; blue for Obama by 3.3 points.
Here's what's even more interesting, though. Intrade Markets, which takes bets on just about any subject, including the 2012 presidential election, has Obama a heavy favorite, with a 64.9 probabliity of victory to Romney's 35.1. Nate Silver, on his site FiveThirtyEight, handicaps the election this way: Obama predicted to win 312.5 electoral votes, Romney 225.5.
IT'S STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE STORMIN' MORMON to make a comeback, of course; but there's at least one other worrisome trend if you're an angry white guy or a fan of the GOP, which are pretty much the same things. When asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Obama, 51.2% of likely voters say favorable, 44% the reverse, positive by 7.2 points. For Romney the numbers are uglier: 44.0 to 44.6, putting him in negative territory by 0.6 points, in recent polling. It almost makes you think he needs to look a little harder for those tax returns.
A sarcastic individual might suggest checking the car elevator.
You never know.
P. S.: If you're on the same side as Mitt and his Band of Merry Bazillionaires you can still hope Geoffrey Chaucer was right when he said: "And wel knowen ye, that by moneye and by havinge grete possessions been all the thinges of this world governed. And Salomon seith: that 'alle thinges obeyen to moneye.'"

1 comment:

  1. mitt has no chance. hes totally clueless to all issues, he's a plasticman, the republican establishment made a huge mistake forcing the nomination to him.

    the election will go to Obama again, not that that's a good thing either...